Find where the betting line is wrong.
UFC picks with the math shown and the losses posted. One model calls every fight without ever seeing the odds; a second flags the fights where the price looks off.
The next UFC card
Track record
One engine, two honest numbers. Fight IQ — the engine's tape-only face — has been graded on 3,288 fights it never trained on: 61.6% of its picks were right, and its highest-confidence Locks hit 74.7% (722 picks). Just backing the closing favorite gets about 68% — we publish a number that loses to Vegas because a model within seven points of the market without ever looking at the market is a model you can actually trust to be independent of it. Value — the money face — flags a bet only when the engine's number beats the vig-free market price by 4+ points: its 658 simulated bets, graded at real closing prices, went 519-139 (+10.0% when bets are sized to the edge; roughly break-even at flat $100 — short-priced favorites pay small). Those results are the walk-forward replay, simulated point-in-time and labeled as such; the replay's first, uncalibrated year is excluded from everything we publish. The live record started July 2026 and is still tiny — 12-5 on settled flags, down $61 at flat $100 so far. The Proof Center grades every pick, and the Factor Lab shows which stats survive the market. The Fight IQ numbers refresh from the pick database on every load; the Value numbers are a snapshot as of Aug 18, 2026.
The toolkit
Stack only the strongest edges
The Parlay Builder pre-fills the best available price we track and shows the model's verdict on every leg before you stack it.
Build a parlay →Spot late-round fade risk
Cardio scores show who holds output deep into fights and who falls apart — context for every pick, not a betting edge on its own.
Check cardio scores →The Factor Lab
Which stats actually predict fights — and which just repeat the betting line. Live rates, real sample sizes.
Open the Factor Lab →See how the engine is built
The engine's features, honest test windows, accuracy and ROI — nothing hidden.
Read the methodology →