Our latest ML model picks UFC winners at 70.0% on 368 graded 2025 fights — tied for the most accurate public model on the internet, on a 50%+ larger verified test than the nearest competitor. Cardio scores, head-to-head matchups, and edge factors validated against thousands of historical fights. Every verdict is locked before the card so the track record is honest, not retrofitted.
Every pick is locked before the event and never retroactively adjusted. The rules-based verdict was rebuilt May 17, 2026 after the May 16 card exposed noise in the model — seven of the ten edge factors were sitting at 52–57% per-fire accuracy, close enough to a coin flip that they were diluting the strong signals. The verdict now uses only Record, Cardio, and Takedown Defense. Backtested accuracy lifted from 65.8% to 68.4% across 8,000+ historical fights. Our newer ML model (v5) hits 70.0% on 368 graded 2025 UFC fights — tied with the most accurate public UFC prediction model on the internet, on a 50%+ larger verified test sample. Read what changed.
No locks, no parlay shoutouts, no premium picks group. Just open data, transparent methodology, and a public track record.
Per-round output ratios across every fighter's recent fights. Identifies fade candidates before fight night.
Compare any two UFC fighters across record, age, reach, cardio, striking, and grappling — instantly.
Each fight verdict shows the strongest edge factors that drove it. No black-box picks; you see the math.
Searchable database of MMA betting insights — finish rates, ring rust, southpaw advantage — all from history.
Every fight on the upcoming card with the model's verdict and the strongest edge factors that drove it.