Find where the betting
line is wrong.
CFL runs two models it can defend — Fight IQ, which never sees a betting line, and Value, which hunts mispriced openers — and shows every graded result, including the misses. The Factor Lab shows which stats survive the market and which just repeat it.
The next UFC card
Track record
Two models, two honest numbers. Value — the money model — has been graded on 395 fights that happened after its December 2024 training cutoff: 69.9% of its picks were right. Its betting rule (favorites only, at least 3 points of edge, flat $100 a bet) has gone 66-21 as of July 15, 2026: up $1,478 at the opening price (+17.0%), still up $1,103 (+12.7%) re-priced at closing odds, and it beat the closing line on 57 of 87 bets. Those results are simulated point-in-time. The live record started July 2026 and is 0-1 so far — the first settled bet lost, and we show it like everything else. Fight IQ never sees a betting line and calls 63.6% of fights right out of sample; just backing the closing favorite gets 68.4%. We publish a number that loses to Vegas because a model within five points of the market without ever looking at the market is a model you can actually trust to be independent of it. The Proof Center grades every pick, and the Factor Lab shows which stats survive the market.
The toolkit
Work a full card in minutes
The Card Lab ranks every fight on the next card by edge, confidence, and dog value — one screen, no tab-hopping.
Open the Card Lab →Stack only the strongest edges
The Parlay Builder pre-fills the best available price we track and shows the model's verdict on every leg before you stack it.
Build a parlay →Spot late-round fade risk
Cardio scores show who holds output deep into fights and who falls apart — context for every pick, not a betting edge on its own.
Check cardio scores →The Factor Lab
Which stats actually predict fights — and which just repeat the betting line. Live rates, real sample sizes.
Open the Factor Lab →See how the models are built
Both models' features, honest test windows, accuracy and ROI — nothing hidden.
Open the Model Lab →