Historical analysis
The Factor Lab
Which stats actually predict fights — and which just repeat the betting line. Every number computed live from the full UFC history, with the sample size attached.
Which stats actually help?
Some stats look like they predict fights when really they just point at the betting favourite.
So we tested each one on the — fights where the odds were even.
If it still wins there, it knows something the odds don't.
Headline edges
Age advantage
Younger fighters win — of fights where there's a clear age gap.
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Stance matchups
In southpaw vs orthodox bouts, southpaws win this often.
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Reach advantage
When one fighter has a 2"+ reach edge, the longer fighter wins this often.
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Title fight finishes
Title fights end inside the distance at this rate.
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Main events
5-round main events finish at this rate vs 3-round prelims.
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More coming
Cardio drop-off, post-loss form, short-notice penalty, finish patterns by round.
Awaiting per-fight stats backfill
Returns once the next scrape completes
Finish rate by division
| Division |
Fights |
Finish rate |
KO/TKO rate |
Submission rate |
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A note on these numbers: Edges shown are aggregate patterns across the full UFC history. They describe tendencies — they don't predict any individual fight. A 56% pattern still means 44% of fights go the other way. Always weigh stats alongside form, matchup style, and circumstance. Stats for entertainment purposes only. 1-800-GAMBLER.