Historical analysis
The Factor Lab
Which stats actually predict fights — and which just repeat the betting line. Every number computed live from the full UFC history, with the sample size attached.
Does it survive the market?
Every factor below is scored against — UFC fights. The first column is how
often the fighter it favours actually won. The second column is the one that matters: the same rate
across only the fights the betting market priced as a coin flip — both men inside
±140 at close. Hold the market flat, and see what the factor still knows.
A factor that looks strong in column one and collapses in column two isn't telling you about the fight.
It's telling you who the favourite was, which you could already read off the odds for free. Every stat
here is rebuilt from fights that had already happened when the fight being scored took place — a
fighter's career record contains the result we're trying to predict, so we never use it.
Nothing is shown below 100 fights.
| Factor |
Raw win rate |
Market held flat |
Verdict |
| Loading… |
Headline edges
Age advantage
Younger fighters win — of fights where there's a clear age gap.
—
Loading…
Stance matchups
In southpaw vs orthodox bouts, southpaws win this often.
—
Loading…
Reach advantage
When one fighter has a 2"+ reach edge, the longer fighter wins this often.
—
Loading…
Title fight finishes
Title fights end inside the distance at this rate.
—
Loading…
Main events
5-round main events finish at this rate vs 3-round prelims.
—
Loading…
More coming
Cardio drop-off, post-loss form, short-notice penalty, finish patterns by round.
Awaiting per-fight stats backfill
Returns once the next scrape completes
Finish rate by division
| Division |
Fights |
Finish rate |
KO/TKO rate |
Submission rate |
| Loading… |
A note on these numbers: Edges shown are aggregate patterns across the full UFC history. They describe tendencies — they don't predict any individual fight. A 56% pattern still means 44% of fights go the other way. Always weigh stats alongside form, matchup style, and circumstance. Stats for entertainment purposes only. 1-800-GAMBLER.