Proof Center

Every pick, graded in public.

This page is computed live from the same database our picks are written to — nothing on it is typed in by hand. Accuracy alone is not enough, so we also show calibration (were the probabilities honest?) and value (would betting the picks have made money?). We show the misses too.

Loading latest data…
Picks are locked before events and never edited after. Every model pick is written to the database ahead of fight night with its probability and the opening line at the time. Results are graded in afterward — the pick itself is insert-only and can't be revised.
Crunching the full pick history…