Proof Center
Every pick we've made. Wins and losses.
This page is built live from the same database our picks are saved to — nothing here is typed in by hand. One engine, two jobs: Fight IQ calls a winner in every fight from fighter data alone, and Value flags the fights where the odds disagree with the model. Being right isn't enough, so we also show whether our percentages hold up — when we say 70%, does it hit about 7 times in 10? — and every miss.
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Two records, clearly labeled. Live picks are written to the database before fight night with their percentage and price — added once, never revised. Everything else is the replay: we re-ran the engine through history year by year, only ever letting it pick fights it had never seen, and graded it at the closing price. The replay's first year is excluded from everything published — the engine wasn't calibrated yet that early, and an uncalibrated number isn't one we'd have shown you. We never show a simulation as if it were live.
Locked before the bell — our real pre-fight record
Not a simulation. Every pick below was saved with a timestamp before the card started, then graded against what actually happened — misses and all. Pick a model to see its genuine pre-fight record.
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Every card, every pick — graded
Crunching the graded record…
Accuracy by year
Do our percentages hold up?
PredictedActual
Where the model has been wrong
The most recent graded misses. A model that only shows winners is selling something.
Every model we've run — archived simulations
Every model we've ever run, oldest to newest. These records are simulations — each model re-run over history, not picks locked before fights — so we grade each only on fights after it was finished, the ones it never trained on. Where a model's exact cutoff isn't confirmed, we start it at Jan 2025 to be safe, so no model can score itself on data it already saw. The one genuinely locked-before-the-bell record is the pre-fight section at the top of this page.
Read the high numbers with suspicion, not pride. The models that score highest here (v5 and v6) do so because our own audit found they leaned on the closing betting line or graded themselves partly on fights they trained on — the exact cheating we walked away from. The engine's lower, honest number is the one we stand behind.
Read the high numbers with suspicion, not pride. The models that score highest here (v5 and v6) do so because our own audit found they leaned on the closing betting line or graded themselves partly on fights they trained on — the exact cheating we walked away from. The engine's lower, honest number is the one we stand behind.
Crunching the full pick history…
Accuracy by year
Straight-up picks (the side the model gave over 50%), grouped by the year the fight happened. The gray tick marks 50% — a coin flip.
Do our percentages hold up?
When the model says 65%, those picks should win about 65% of the time. Gray bar = what the model predicted on average, green bar = what actually happened.
PredictedActual
Favorites vs underdogs
Split by the opening betting line, recorded at pick time. Favorites winning often is expected — the underdog column shows what happens when the model disagrees with the market.
Profit per $100 bet
What you'd have made or lost betting $100 on every pick above each edge, at the opening line. Edge is how much higher our percentage is than what the odds say.
Where the model has been wrong
The most recent graded misses, priced at the opening line on record. A model that only shows winners is selling something.
Engine vs the other models, same test
Everything measured on the identical window — fights from Jan 1, 2025 onward, after every model's training cutoff. Apples to apples.
Did we beat the closing price?
The toughest test of a betting model: we take -150, it closes at -180, we got the better price. Do our picks do that over and over?
Every live Value pick locks its price the moment we post it, and we compare it to the closing price after the card. That sample is still too small to mean anything, so we're not going to dress it up as proof — these numbers go up here once 100+ locked picks have both a posted price and a closing price on record. Until then, judge us on the graded record above.
How to read this honestly
- Accuracy alone is not enough. Betting the closing favorite every time gets you to ≈68% at closing odds — for free. Our engine lands around 61% without ever seeing a betting line, and we publish that number instead of dressing it up. Fight IQ's claim is independence; Value's claim is price — it only bets where the model and the market genuinely disagree.
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- Model output, not guarantees. A 70% pick loses 3 times out of 10. Nothing here is betting advice.
- Samples matter. Anything under ~100 picks in a bucket is noise. We show the counts so you can discount accordingly.
The record is the pitch.Put the model to work on the next card — every pick, edge, and price in one place.
Model probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees. Historical performance does not predict future results. Cannon Fight Lab is an analytics publication, not a sportsbook, and nothing on this page is betting advice. 21+ only.